When a subject becomes so predictible you can't organise pronostic league on its issue, the french newspapers call it a "marronnier" (chestnut). For instance, in France today's chestnut is: "les sujets du bac philo" (baccalaureat exam philosophy questions). I notice that two questions directly deal with the Pronostic League:
- What would be art without rules?
- Do we have to forget the past to write the future?
But this is not my chestnut. Mine is "explaining the Baseline".
The Baseline is the number of points you would have gained if you had bet like most people do (most frequent bet). Its goal is to give points to people who temporarily forgot to play. But because we don't want people without inspiration to rely only on the Baseline and get points too easily, we make the Baseline less juicy in limiting victory points to 1 instead of 2 for a real PL player.
So, here's Baseline computation for round 1.
6 points instead of 9 if it had been a real (and a rather good!) player.
Baseline would have predicted the victory of urugay on france. Baseline deserves the guillotine!
ReplyDeleteIt would be interesting to have in the ranking the "real baseline player" (the one with 9 points).
ReplyDeleteYes Arnaud, and I added Mister 0-0 and Miss 1-1 too.
ReplyDelete